I was trying to figure out what to make of all the housing market stats for Manhattan that were released today. The way the data is being interpreted in the media varies widely-- I won't go into great detail, but see this post at Matrix for some analysis of the coverage-- headlines include the words "down," "up," "stable," "steady," "slump," and "leap," so you can see there's a real definitive consensus going on!
Meanwhile, a commenter referenced one report in relation to Monday's post and comments about my net worth:
I don't recall the details of your home purchase (if you've mentioned it). However, I'd suggest that you game the possibility that you will have negative equity despite the 20% down payment. Prices are coming down pretty quickly. For example, in just the last quarter, coops lost 16% of their value. See:Prices are indeed coming down, at least by some measures. But quarter-to-quarter changes never seem to be the best indicator of how much things are changing-- yearly changes are more telling. Some of the stats do show some year on year decreases, but others still show increases. And today's news is focused on Manhattan numbers, not Brooklyn. I think we're still on the cusp of whatever changes are happening and it's too soon to tell exactly how it will all shake out.
[NY Post link]
I still don't think I'm in danger of being upside down on my condo just yet. First of all, my condo went on the market almost a year ago and I bought at that price. A similar condo seems to have sold just recently for 15% more than I am paying. As I've said, I'm not really counting on any instant equity, but I think the value of my condo should at least be holding steady to what I paid right now. Even if prices continue to slide, I'll have put 20% down and I'll be paying off a chunk of the principal each month. Yes, the principal payments are small at first, but hopefully I can win the race and keep my head above water until whatever kind of soft landing/ crash/ slump/ pause we're heading into settles out into a normal pattern of moderate growth.